Today's Coming Crisis Movie

Friday, September 16, 2011

China risks hard landing as global woes spread

China's carefully-managed soft landing is turning harder by the day, threatening to deflate the torrid credit bubble of the past three years.

"There is a large potential risk," said Zhu Min, the deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund and a former Chinese official.

Mr Zhu said China had doubled the loan ratio from below 100pc of GDP before the Lehman crisis to roughly 200pc today.

The danger is that this excess could start to unwind just as the West goes into a sharp downturn, and possibly a double-dip recession.

China and emerging Asia are fundamentally in weaker shape this time, having used up their "fiscal cushions", leaving them with little leeway to cope with a fresh global shock. Their monetary policies are already loose.

"We're at a key moment. They need to make sure their economies don't slow down too fast," he said at the World Economic Forum in Dalian. more