Today's Coming Crisis Movie

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Are we in the midst of the "perfect global storm"?

It appeared to be the first global storm since World War II, a commingling of unrelated disasters.

For Japan, it was 9/11-plus, the worst disaster since U.S. atomic bombs leveled Hiroshima and Nagasaki 65 years ago and sealed the end of the second world war in the 20th century.

More than 10,000 Japanese drowned as their homes, automobiles and boats were swallowed by gigantic waves that also left about 300,000 homeless and shivering in a late winter cold snap and 4.4 million without power.

A magnitude 9 earthquake triggered another nuclear disaster for Japan with a series of some 200 aftershocks and meltdowns that left Japan's Fukushima plant renewing revulsion of nuclear energy in Germany and Japan -- and the United States.

The idea of "The Black Swan," the subject of the mega-bestseller by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, describes an unpredictable event of great consequence.

1) An "outlier," as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility;

2) It carries an extreme impact;

3) In spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable." (read more)