Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Bird Flu: H5N1 in Bhutan, variant H3N2 pandemic risk

H5N1 hits backyard flocks in Bhutan
An outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu in backyard free-ranging flocks in Bhutan has killed 18 poultry and led to 952 more being culled, according to a Jan 11 report to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The birds had died from Dec 19 through Dec 30 in Dagana village in Dagana district, the report said. Trace-back investigations found that 10 more birds had died in the previous month but had not been reported, the report said.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jan1413fluscan.html

Modeling study finds low pandemic risk from variant H3N2
Novel swine-origin variant H3N2 influenza (H3N2v) does not currently pose a substantial pandemic risk, according to Canadian flu experts, but that could change over time, according to a study in PLoS One. The scientists estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on age-specific estimates of serosusceptibility and social interactions. They used a contact network model established for Greater Vancouver to estimate ARs for H3N2v, pandemic 2009 H1N1, and a former seasonal H3N2 strain. The model factored in typical flu characteristics, basic reproduction number, social contacts, and age-specific seroprotection rates (SPRs).

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jan1413fluscan.html