Monday, November 21, 2011

China could overtake US economy by 2027

Jim O'Neill, the head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has predicted that China could overtake the United States as the world's largest economy by 2027 and urged a fundamental rethink of the operation of the G7 which he believes is too dominated by the West.

In his long awaited update to his seminal 2001 paper on the BRIC economies of Brazil, India, Russia and China, Jim O'Neill says that the economies he highlighted have exceeded even his expectations in the way they have become global powerhouses.

Mr O'Neill says that the four countries should no longer be considered "emerging" economies but rather "growth" economies and should be given their rightful place as the top table of power.

A decade ago, Mr O'Neill sparked a new way of looking at the global economy when he coined the term BRIC. A decade on, his new book The Growth Map reveals the next stages in the progress of the non-Western economies which have come to dominate corporate life across the world.

The book is serialised in The Sunday Telegraph today with further extracts in tomorrow and Tuesday's Daily Telegraph and online at "Our updated research suggests that China's economic output – its gross domestic product – could match that of the US as early as 2027, and perhaps even sooner," he writes.

"Since 2001, China's GDP has risen fourfold, from $1.5 trillion to $6 trillion [£949bn to £3.7trillion] Economically speaking, China has created three new Chinas in the past decade. And it's likely that the combined GDP of the four BRIC nations will exceed that of the US sometime before 2020." more