The latest batch of leaked cables report the views of Sadad al-Husseini, a former board member of the national oil company Saudi Aramco and a geologist who headed exploration and production for the company from 1986 to 2004. He and the US consul-general met in November 2007, when Saudi Aramco were halfway through a $50bn investment programme aiming to lift Saudi maximum daily production capacity from 9.5 million barrels a day to 12.5m by 2009.
Al-Husseini told the Americans he believed that the 12.5m barrel a day target would prove impossible. The kingdom might get to 12m barrels a day given 10 years, but before then – perhaps as early as 2012 – global production would have hit the highest level it ever will, and given that demand won't be abating by then given levels of economic growth in China and India, the oil price will soar. He told the Americans plainly that the Saudis will not be able to ride to the rescue: the Saudi oil industry was overstating its recoverable reserves so as to spur foreign investment, he alleged, at the same time as it was badly underestimating the time needed for bringing new oil on tap. (read more)